Goal For The Green

The economic recession, and decreased support for strict environmental regulation, may threaten the green movement, or put  a “green” future on hold.  Or, it could make a strong declaration, that the cheapest and easiest path of pumping more oil, instead of spending money, to develop alternative energy sources, is the WRONG, path to be on.

According, to a recent study and economic predictions, it seems it maybe, panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.

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As of November 13, 2010, special thanks goes to  Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions, for the following information, being shared here.

A new paper, by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, says it would take 131 YEARS, for replacement of GASOLINE  and DIESEL, given the current pace of research and development.  However, the world’s oil, could run dry, almost a century before that.

The research was published, on Nov. 8, at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory, that market expectations are good predictors, reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.

By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production, could occur between 2010 and 2030, BEFORE renewable replacement, technologies become viable, at around 2140.

The estimates, not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up, the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest, some previous estimates that pegged year 2040, as the time frame, when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic”.

As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology, simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers, and lacks the infrastructure for a mass deployment….even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates.

In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies, is not as green, as people might think. Most alternative technologies, rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the radioactive waste produced by rare earths mining process, makes oil sands look like a green energy. This overlooked (or ignored) fact, just now received some attention due to the sudden shortage, caused by China’s embargo and export quotas, on rare earths.

Another case in point – In China, the city of Jiuquan in Gansu, province needs to build 9.2 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity, as backup power, of the 12.7 gigawatts wind turbines due to be installed by 2015.  So, more wind farms, would need more coal-fired power plants, with little, or possibly NO carbon reduction.

Capitalism, means the investment, naturally flows to the more profitable proposition….and vice versa. With more data and information becoming available, not much could go unnoticed by the markets, particularly in a relatively new sector, such as renewable energy.  This harsh reality, is clearly reflected in this new study.

Now, in its latest long term outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand, prices and dependence on OPEC, all set to continue rising through 2035, and that global oil supplies near their peak in 2035, as China, India and other emerging economies keep on trucking.

So, the world needs to come to a common understanding that:

1. The alternative energy, is not mature enough to replace fossil sources, any time soon.
2. Energy security means, a diversified and balanced portfolio, inclusive of every bit of resource, fossil as well as renewables, just to meet the projected demand.
3. Real “green” energy is easier said than done.

Furthermore, the increased rare earths dependency, and the latest food vs. fuel debate, when the food industry slapped a law suit against the EPA, over E15 ethanol, serve as examples illustrating that implementing policies, without thorough planning and research, often times has unintended and nasty consequences. (In this E15 case, the EAP, is an easy mark with one in eight Americans on food stamps.)

A balanced, and unbiased government policy, to guide exploration and development of technologies, to unlock the new fossil fuel reserves, by expanding the R&D’s (requirements and demands) of emerging technologies, while effectively practicing and promoting energy efficiency, and conservation, is required.

Otherwise, we may literally witness $300 a barrel oil, well before the electric vehicle, even makes one percent market penetration. Unfortunately, there’s no easy fix.

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The economy, has been providing a tool for understanding, a short-term business cycle, but what is  important, is the cycle and evolution of nature, such as global warming and climate change. It is something, we all need to look at our part in. We all, must implement ways to conserve, and get back to nature.  Plant a garden, grow your our cattle, and live as cost free as possible.

While, a short-term cycle, corresponds to what we call “economic growth”, the evolution cycle, corresponds to the “growth in nature,”  a growth that refers, not only to the economy, but also to social and environmental justice.

In a green economy, costs of environmental protection, are included and factored into production.  It  can also, allow us to  reflect on  a new perspective, of managing the economy where, and in which, we ourselves, are living in.  In short, we can all learn to be better stewards of our surroundings.

We are in the midst, of a global and economic crisis.  It is time for all of us, to step back and take stock, of how we are connected to it.  What can we do today, to make the world a better place?

What would these tools do for your business, and your POCKETS?